For those who follow my dividend holdings, you probably noticed that I have sold ZWB and bought STX not so long ago. I’ve already shared my disappointment in ZWB and decided to move on quickly. When I sold ZWB, I was down by about 12% (loss of $251.38 after dividend payments). STX is almost getting this loss back after 6 weeks since the trade (I’m currently +$235 at the moment of writing this post). I wasn’t expecting to make a quick profit on this stock as I think I can get a lot more with Seagate Technology. Let me tell you how…

 

Seagate Technology (STX) Stock Description:

 

Seagate Technology is the largest hard disk manufacturer with 35% in market share. Their range of production goes from desktop to laptop and from servers to workstations. STX has great expertise in storage data and includes backup system services and digital video recorders (DVRs). It is also present in online backup services. STX surely has a lot of competitors in this industry. The most important are Western Digital (WDC),Hitachi, Samsung, Toshiba and SanDisk.

 

Seagate Technology (STX) Stock Graph

 

STX

Seagate Technology (STX) Ratios and Financial Info:

 

 
Ticker
STX
NameSeagate Technology PLC
Dividend Metrics
Current Dividend Yield3,63
5 year Dividend Growth17,75
1 year Dividend Growth39
Company Metrics
Sales Growth (1 year)-3,72
Sales Growth (5 year)14,87
Earnings growthN/A
P/E ratio6,15
Margins growth-3,37
Payout ratio31,77
Return on Equity19,7
Debt to Capital Ratio0,24

 

STX financial metrics are quite interesting. The dividend yield and dividend growth are pretty strong. Most of the dividend growth comes from the past 12 months when STX has adopted an aggressive dividend increase paired with a $2,5G stock repurchase plan. With such a low P/E ratio (6.15) and forward P/E ratio (around 2.9), we understand why STX is more interested in purchasing its own stocks. Their payout ratio is also quite reasonable and provides room for dividend increases in the future. The debt to capital ratio is quite low as well. Definitely, the present situation of the company looks good.

Seagate Technology (STX) Technical Analysis

 

STX technical analysis

 

STX is trading on a uptrend. Click here to get a free technical analysis report on STX.

 

Upcoming opportunities and dangers:

 

While the current financial metrics around Seagate look great, the future is uncertain. There is a reason why the P/E ratio is so low; some investors believe in the death of the PC. The main problem for STX is similar to Intel’s. Both companies are leaders in their industry (hard drives and processors) but they are both directly related to PCs. Mobiles and tablets are lurking towards flash memory to store their data. The difference between hard drives and flash is huge. Hard drives include mechanical parts, use more power and flash drives are also less likely to break. On the other hand, flash memory is not as powerful as hard drives and is costly. So far, hard drives are also faster than flash technology. Unfortunately, you can bet that as technology advance, these disadvantages will disappear to the profit of a strong and faster flash drives. This is how Flash memory could eventually replace hard drives.

 

STX recently decreased its forecast for Q4 2012 in a similar way that Intel did after releasing strong results last week. However, both stocks rose on the day. This shows that the market knows about upcoming dangers but still believes that computer related companies are strong enough to evolve at the same speed as technology does. STX has made a few recent acquisitions in order to boost their cloud computing division. This is another growing market to develop.

 

Final Thoughts on Seagate Technology (STX)

I’ve bought STX for a few reasons. The first one was the low P/E ratio paired with a solid balance sheet. The company has a lot of cash to make acquisitions and develop other technologies in order to face flash memory future domination. I also believe that if STX continues to post strong results as they did in the last 18 months or so, investors will increase the P/E multiple for this company. I don’t expect a P/E ratio of 15 but I’m pretty sure it can reach 8-9. This would add a nice % to my investment return. In the meantime, the company is doing well presently and paying a strong dividend. This is enough to keep me waiting for a while.

 

The bet on STX is simple; I think they will continue to sell hard drives and that they are strong enough to evolve over time. On top of that there are 24 analysts following the stock and their average growth forecast is 30%. Not bad for a “supposedly dying” company?

 

Disclaimer: I’m long STX and sold my positions in ZWB a month ago.

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6 Comments   |  

6 Comments

July 23, 2012, 11:07 am

I think Seagate will be fine over at least the next 5 years. Laptops are the best productivity tool out there and I don’t think tablets or other devices will beat it anytime soon. The laptops still need hard drives. Seagate is a little behind on flash drives, but hopefully they’ll get something going before the turning point.

clocks
July 23, 2012, 1:18 pm

Joe – Many newer laptops can, and do use SSDs instead of hard drives. Regardless, I still think STX is a good investment for at least the next year or two.

Steve
July 23, 2012, 4:34 pm

Does the decline in sales and lower margins concern you? Do you see this turning around.

Mike
July 25, 2012, 7:11 am

@Steve,

this is a pretty good point. However, there is a pretty good explanation. Hard drive industry was affected by a flood in Thailand last year. This is why sales were down.

August 8, 2012, 6:40 am

[...] combined my dividend payout with the portfolio value, I was still at a loss. I sold ZWB and bought STX (Seagate Technology) instead. This is how I made by my money back in just three weeks. Will I [...]

Clancy
August 31, 2012, 10:41 am

Just found out that stx dividend is taxed in my rrsp account as its corporate headquarters are in ireland.
Thought that Ireland would have a treaty with canada as canada has with us in regards to dividends not being taxed in an rrsp

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