Wow… it has been a long month, right?
I left for my first “couple vacation” (read; without kids!) in the last ten years! We went to Hawaii to take some real time off, do all kinds of crazy things (like jumping into a waterfall and diving into a crater) and get some sun (I live in the cold winterland: Canada!). Now that I’m back, snow and ice are still around and the stock market seems to be relatively stuck in ice as well.
Both the Canadian and US markets are pretty slow since the beginning of the year (about +1% for the S&P500 and +0.75% for the TSX). I feel somewhat lucky to see a healthy +3.7% for my own dividend holdings. On top of following my own portfolio, I also pick 20 US and 10 CDN dividend stocks each year to be the best performers. Here are my results:
Best 2014 Dividend Stock Pick Returns
I’ve started this “tradition” on my blog in 2012. The goal is to pick 20 US and 10 CDN dividend stocks that I think will outperform their peers. This is the reason why I use VIG and XDV as my benchmarks. I keep track of my results for accountability purposes. I find that too many analysts and blogs just drop the ball on their picks when they are not that great. By posting monthly results, I have no other choice but to face my performance and explain it. You can look at my previous picks and returns:
Best Dividend Stock Picks 2012 (-1.47% vs VIG (US dividend ETF), + 8.32% vs XDV (CDN dividend ETF)
Best Dividend Stock Picks 2013 (+11.07% vs VIG, + 0.77% vs XDV)
You can also buy my 2014 Best Dividend Stock Picks on Kindle (Amazon) to get the full analysis:
2014 Best US Dividend Stocks: -0.14% vs +0.07% (VIG)
In January and February, I decided to not publish my stock picks and give the benefits for those who bought my book. I thought it was only normal to give them more since they paid for the book (or got it for free if you were on my mailing list back in January). Now that the first quarter is almost done, I thought I would give you a little bit more. You can now see my picks and their returns…. But the book also includes one pager analyses 
I lag the index by a few points mainly because I hold Mattel (MAT) in my portfolio. Their latest quarterly results were a total disappointing and growth expectation is set to flat nothing. The stock dropped by more than 20% and now stands at -21% (reminds me of the current weather outside my window!!).
Philip Morris (PM) was another deceiving stock. Latest forward guidance predicts drops in sales and earnings affected by currency rates. No good news. However, the stock is paying a high dividend yield considering the market (4.75%) and is trading at a relatively low P/E ratio (which means the bad news is already accounted for in the stock value). PM is also investing massively to create new product lines. Since the stock is already on its knees, there is a potential upside for the future and the current drop could represent a great entry point.
2014 Best CDN Dividend Stocks: +0.22% vs -0.04% (XDV)
My performance on the Canadian market enables me to slightly beat my benchmark by a few points. This is mainly due to my recent homerun pick; Gluskin Sheff (TSE:GS). Note that the GS return doesn’t show the special dividend of $1.40 per share that was just paid last month. On the other hand, I have Rogers (RCI.B) juggling with stiffer competition and Dorel Industries (DII.B) dealing with sales growth issues.
While I’m not too worried about Rogers, I am a little bit more concerned with Dorel. I believed in their potential considering the current economy but they seem to struggle to deliver. I knew about their problems in 2013 but thought they could benefit from a push by the economy. I’m now sitting with a loser in my portfolio…
Trades on My Best Dividend Stocks are Coming Up
This year, I announced a small change in my stock picking process. During 2012 and 2013, I only could select stocks prior to January 1st and keep them for the following 12 months. This year, I allow trades in both portfolios. I added this rule since I didn’t want to get stuck with a bad news early in the year that would kill my performance during the whole year (as happened with RadioShack (RSH) back in 2012. I will still carry the stock’s bad return in my book, but I will be able to try to make up for it with another trade. For example, I’m expecting to “sell” Mattel and Dorel this month to select two other stocks.
Obviously, Dividend Stocks Rock members will be the first one to know about it.
Nice to see you back Mike! I was in Hawaii in 1976 and it was my best trip ever! I agree with your comments and I would buy more RCI.B.
It was the best vacation ever as well! very expensive, but it’s worth every penny!