Note: I use the Stock Selection Guide Software and its methodologies from the CSA to perform the bulk of my analysis on stocks. This is not a recommendation to buy a stock – it is my analysis only. Please do your own research.
After some good feedback over the past couple of weeks about the weekly stock analysis posts that I have been doing every Wednesday, I have decided to alter the format to be a bit easier to read. As you may or may not know, I use the Stock Selection Guide Software from the CSA to do my analysis. It is loosely based off off the investing methodology introduced by the NAIC some time ago. As such, I am going to provide links to the sheets that I create using the software which will show the numbers that I run. To be thorough, I will also include my comments and additional analysis that I have completed in the course of my research. This should give my readers a clear picture of my stance on the particular stock. Of course this is, and will always be, my own analysis and not intended to be a suggestion to buy the stock. Here is the analysis of the first stock I am doing in this format – Imperial Oil.
Imperial Oil Limited is a Canada-based integrated oil company. It is active in all phases of the petroleum industry in Canada, including the exploration for, and production and sale of, crude oil and natural gas. It is producer of crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas, and a refiner and marketer of petroleum products. It is also supplier of petrochemicals. The Company’s operations are conducted through three main segments: natural resources (upstream), petroleum products (downstream) and chemicals.
Revenue and EPS Graph
IMO’s Revenue growth has been very choppy over the past 10 years and has declined significantly in the past 2 years, continuing on this year with the past 3 quarters showing a decrease of 3.6%. This is concerning given the unprecedented growth the oil and gas industry has seen in the past few years. I have had to be conservative in my revenue growth estimate for IMO given this relatively poor performance. I have estimated revenue growth at 5% which means that revenues in 2011 are projected at $29,649 (m).
The earnings picture is a much more favorable, especially since 2002. Growth during this period was 26.9%. If it were not for the period from 1997 to 1999, the earnings picture would be spectacular. However, given the large number of investment choices in the oil and gas industry, I feel it is necessary to be quite strict in my criteria for constant earnings growth. In addition, I have difficulty with the concept of projecting earnings to grow at a faster rate than revenues. This fundamentally feels wrong. As such, I am estimating IMO to grow earnings at a rate of 5% over the next 5 years. My projected earnings per share amount in 2011 is $3.97.
Dividend growth has been consistent over the past 10 years. I view this as a positive sign as my focus is on stocks that consistently increase their dividends.
The current dividend yield of 0.69% is low compared to its 10 year historical average dividend yield of 2.0%. I want current yield to be higher than the 10 year average. In addition, the yield for IMO is significantly lower than the yield on the S&P 500 Index, which is currently at 2.00%. It would be more prudent to simply buy the index and get a higher yield than invest in IMO on its own.
The stock selection guide allows an investor to come up with a valuation range for the stock based on historical prices, dividend returns, historical share price returns, and risk. It does this through formula that determines an upside and downside price (return / risk) for the stock. My inputs for the stock are as follows:
Revenue Growth Rate: 5%
EPS Growth Rate: 5%
Projected Upside P/E: 17.0
Dividend Return: 2.0%
Provision for a decline in the current stock price: 20%
Based on these inputs and the analysis completed by the software, my buy zone for the stock is $41.64 to $49.84. Given the current share price of $51.27 on November 21, 2007, I do not consider IMO to be a buy.
Disclosure: The Dividend Guy does not own shares in IMO. This is my analysis of the stock and is not investment advice. Do your own research.